Work Package 6

Scaling up, prediction, risk assessment and mitigation

Overall aim

To develop models, a risk assessment plan and a mitigation strategy relating to a sensible range of CCS leakage scenarios.

This work package will define the information necessary for an environmental risk assessment and assemble the relevant meta-data relating to the UK shelf seas.

The tasks within this work package are:

Task 6.1. Establishing the requirements of a formal risk assessment. (DNV, all other project research organisations)
Few studies address possible effects on marine ecosystems as a result of CO2 leakage from under seabed geological storage. One overall objective of the project is to define the information required to undertake an environmental risk assessment within the context of CCS. Within this task a framework will be provided for the scientists to gather the information required for an environmental risk assessment (ERA). It is intended that knowledge and experience gained both on this and previous projects will be shared in a way that promotes the best interests of the research consortium.

Task 6.2 Mitigation strategies: key features of the UK shelf (Plymouth Marine Laboratory, National Oceanography Centre- Liverpool, British Geological Survey)
The impact of a leak will be in part a factor of the geology, the sediment, the sea water and the ecological importance of the area. Within this project we will improve our knowledge of the influence each of these factors has.

Moderation of environmental impacts can then be achieved by using the most appropriate sites for CCS. We will assemble data on key physical, chemical and biological properties of the North Sea, drawing attention to potential CCS sites.

Task 6.3: A predictive model system with various scenarios. (Plymouth Marine Laboratory, National Oceanography Centre -Liverpool, Heriot-Watt University)
Work package 2 will deliver a suite of complex models. Task 6.3 will unite these so that, for a given geological leak rate the migration and impact in the ecological zone along with dispersion and loss to the atmosphere can be predicted. This suite of models will have the potential to be developed as an operational tool for future risk assessment requirements.

Task 6.4: Impact indicators towards a risk assessment. (Plymouth Marine Laboratory, DNV, all other project research organisations)
From the requirements for an ERA defined in 6.1 and the results generated in 6.3 we will use statistical techniques to produce a set of robust models to describe relationships between leakage, environmental factors and impact.

These will be used to make comparisons of the effects of CCS, and different leakage scenarios, to effects resulting from other pressures in the marine environment such as climate change, Ocean Acidification and fishing, which are already being quantified in other projects.